📊 MODEL SCORECARD
VALUE-EDGE MODEL vs POLYMARKET · BRIER-SCORED ON COMPLETED MATCHES
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MODEL vs MARKET · 50 MATCHES SCORED
❌ MARKET BEATS THE MODEL
Brier score (lower = better): 0.477 model vs 0.415 market
MODEL BRIER
0.477
lower is better
MARKET BRIER
0.415
the benchmark
LOG-LOSS
0.823
vs 0.726 market
TOP-PICK HIT
68%
vs 74% market
💸 EDGE STRATEGY · 16 PICKS (≥10% GAP)
-75.9%
simulated ROI · flat 1-unit stakes at real Polymarket prices · -12.15u on 16 bet(s)
HIT RATE
12%
2/16 edge picks won
EDGE ROI
-75.9%
per unit staked
FAVOURITE ROI
+17.8%
baseline · 74% hit
⚠ The edge picks are not beating a naive back-the-favourite baseline (yet). ROI buys 1 unit of the picked outcome at its actual price (1 unit → 1/price if it wins, −1 if it loses). Small-sample warning: a handful of matches is not proof — treat this as directional only.

📊 SCORED MATCHES

MATCH · RESULTMODELMARKETBRIER M/K
Algeria v Austria
2026-06-28 · draw 3–3
26%47%0.82/0.42
Jordan v Argentina
2026-06-28 · away win 1–3
85%86%0.04/0.03
Colombia v Portugal
2026-06-27 · draw 0–0
27%24%0.81/0.88
Congo DR v Uzbekistan
2026-06-27 · home win 3–1
37%58%0.60/0.27
Croatia v Ghana
2026-06-27 · home win 2–1
65%54%0.19/0.33
Panama v England
2026-06-27 · away win 0–2
72%82%0.12/0.05
Egypt v Iran
2026-06-27 · draw 1–1
27%36%0.81/0.62
New Zealand v Belgium
2026-06-27 · away win 1–5
67%82%0.16/0.05
Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia
2026-06-27 · draw 0–0
27%28%0.81/0.77
Uruguay v Spain
2026-06-27 · away win 0–1
65%58%0.19/0.27
Norway v France
2026-06-26 · away win 1–4
50%60%0.38/0.24
Senegal v Iraq
2026-06-26 · home win 5–0
59%79%0.25/0.07
Paraguay v Australia
2026-06-26 · draw 0–0
27%42%0.81/0.51
Türkiye v United States
2026-06-26 · home win 3–2
27%25%0.83/0.90
Japan v Sweden
2026-06-25 · draw 1–1
24%28%0.93/0.82
Tunisia v Netherlands
2026-06-25 · away win 1–3
77%89%0.08/0.02
Curaçao v Ivory Coast
2026-06-25 · away win 0–2
64%83%0.19/0.05
Ecuador v Germany
2026-06-25 · home win 2–1
26%19%0.86/1.08
Czechia v Mexico
2026-06-25 · away win 0–3
64%50%0.19/0.37
South Africa v South Korea
2026-06-25 · home win 1–0
16%15%1.13/1.15
Morocco v Haiti
2026-06-24 · home win 4–2
71%84%0.13/0.04
Scotland v Brazil
2026-06-24 · away win 0–3
58%75%0.26/0.09
Bosnia-Herzegovina v Qatar
2026-06-24 · home win 3–1
52%70%0.34/0.14
Switzerland v Canada
2026-06-24 · home win 2–1
40%38%0.54/0.57
Colombia v Congo DR
2026-06-24 · home win 1–0
69%63%0.15/0.21
Panama v Croatia
2026-06-23 · away win 0–1
55%66%0.30/0.17
England v Ghana
2026-06-23 · draw 0–0
14%12%1.41/1.45
Portugal v Uzbekistan
2026-06-23 · home win 5–0
63%83%0.21/0.05
Jordan v Algeria
2026-06-23 · away win 1–2
46%63%0.43/0.21
Norway v Senegal
2026-06-23 · home win 3–2
48%44%0.41/0.47
France v Iraq
2026-06-22 · home win 3–0
83%90%0.05/0.02
Argentina v Austria
2026-06-22 · home win 2–0
68%67%0.16/0.17
New Zealand v Egypt
2026-06-22 · away win 1–3
49%61%0.39/0.23
Uruguay v Cape Verde
2026-06-21 · draw 2–2
23%22%1.00/1.08
Belgium v Iran
2026-06-21 · draw 0–0
26%20%0.85/1.15
Spain v Saudi Arabia
2026-06-21 · home win 4–0
84%88%0.04/0.02
Tunisia v Japan
2026-06-21 · away win 0–4
69%67%0.15/0.17
Ecuador v Curaçao
2026-06-21 · draw 0–0
15%9%1.36/1.57
Germany v Ivory Coast
2026-06-20 · home win 2–1
56%66%0.29/0.18
Netherlands v Sweden
2026-06-20 · home win 5–1
52%57%0.34/0.27
Türkiye v Paraguay
2026-06-20 · away win 0–1
30%25%0.74/0.87
Brazil v Haiti
2026-06-20 · home win 3–0
78%88%0.08/0.02
Scotland v Morocco
2026-06-19 · away win 0–1
40%59%0.55/0.26
United States v Australia
2026-06-19 · home win 2–0
37%59%0.59/0.25
Mexico v South Korea
2026-06-19 · home win 1–0
52%46%0.35/0.43
Canada v Qatar
2026-06-18 · home win 6–0
72%74%0.12/0.10
Switzerland v Bosnia-Herzegovina
2026-06-18 · home win 4–1
60%62%0.24/0.22
Czechia v South Africa
2026-06-18 · draw 1–1
24%29%0.92/0.80
Uzbekistan v Colombia
2026-06-18 · away win 1–3
62%71%0.22/0.13
Ghana v Panama
2026-06-17 · home win 1–0
19%40%1.05/0.55
Each row scores the probability the model (and market) gave to the outcome that actually happened — MODEL/MARKET columns show that outcome's pre-match %. Brier M/K compares the two (green = model beat the market on that match). All predictions are logged pre-kickoff, so there's no hindsight.
SCORED VIA BRIER & LOG-LOSS · PREDICTIONS LOGGED PRE-KICKOFF (NO HINDSIGHT) · NOT BETTING ADVICE